Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 7 23:17:02 UTC 2023.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 7 23:17:02 UTC 2023.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight across portions of east Texas. Low-level moistening has continued across southern Texas with dewpoints now in the upper 60s. Shallow convection is streaming in off the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to become deeper later this evening as temperatures cool aloft. Shear should be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 02/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023/ ...East Texas... Thunderstorms, including a couple of strong to severe storms, are expected to overspread portions of the TX Gulf Coast and east TX through the late evening and overnight hours as a cold front migrates east. Mid-morning surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing with mid to upper 60s dewpoints spreading across the TX coastal plain. This moisture will gradually shift northward into east TX during the evening/overnight hours as a surface low gradually deepens across north-central TX along a migratory surface cold front. Synoptic ascent associated with an approaching upper wave (noted over southern NM in water-vapor imagery) will largely be displaced behind the front over the next 24 hours. This ascent, combined with broad mid-level isentropic ascent over the southern Plains, will likely result in widespread stratiform precipitation with embedded elevated convection over much of central to northeast TX. Surface-based convection will most likely be focused along the cold front this evening/tonight across the TX coastal plain into east TX, coincident with the higher-quality moisture. Warm 850-700 mb temperatures (noted in 12 UTC RAOBS across southern TX) may modulate updraft intensities; however, increasing kinematic fields during the 06-12 UTC period will elongate hodographs and may support a couple of more robust, organized cells capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.Read more