Spc Outloook

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Forecast Products
  1. No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 7 23:17:02 UTC 2023.
  2. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 7 23:17:02 UTC 2023.
  3. SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0200 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2023
    
    Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
    COASTAL PLAIN TO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
    and overnight across portions of east Texas.
    
    Low-level moistening has continued across southern Texas with
    dewpoints now in the upper 60s. Shallow convection is streaming in
    off the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to become deeper later this
    evening as temperatures cool aloft. Shear should be sufficient for a
    few organized storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a
    tornado.
    
    ..Bentley.. 02/07/2023
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023/
    
    ...East Texas...
    Thunderstorms, including a couple of strong to severe storms, are
    expected to overspread portions of the TX Gulf Coast and east TX
    through the late evening and overnight hours as a cold front
    migrates east. Mid-morning surface observations depict modest
    moisture return ongoing with mid to upper 60s dewpoints spreading
    across the TX coastal plain. This moisture will gradually shift
    northward into east TX during the evening/overnight hours as a
    surface low gradually deepens across north-central TX along a
    migratory surface cold front. Synoptic ascent associated with an
    approaching upper wave (noted over southern NM in water-vapor
    imagery) will largely be displaced behind the front over the next 24
    hours. This ascent, combined with broad mid-level isentropic ascent
    over the southern Plains, will likely result in widespread
    stratiform precipitation with embedded elevated convection over much
    of central to northeast TX. Surface-based convection will most
    likely be focused along the cold front this evening/tonight across
    the TX coastal plain into east TX, coincident with the
    higher-quality moisture. Warm 850-700 mb temperatures (noted in 12
    UTC RAOBS across southern TX) may modulate updraft intensities;
    however, increasing kinematic fields during the 06-12 UTC period
    will elongate hodographs and may support a couple of more robust,
    organized cells capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.
    
    
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