Severe Weather outlook
Storm Prediction Center
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SPC Nov 8, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of far eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Far Eastern Georgia/Carolinas... At mid-levels, a trough will move quickly eastward into the Ozarks today, as southwesterly cyclonic flow remains over much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a warm front will move into southern North Carolina, as a moist airmass advects northward to the south of the front. Surface dewpoints across this airmass will be in the 60s F, and weak instability is expected to develop during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level system approaches. In the late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings near Charleston, South Carolina have MUCAPE increasing to around 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep in the lowest 1 km. This environment could support marginally severe wind gusts and hail. Later this evening, a band of storms is forecast to develop across the Carolinas along the northwestern edge of the moist airmass. Along this southwest-to-northeast corridor, a marginal severe threat may be maintained through the evening as a low-level jet becomes focused. However, the primary threat could gradually transition to hail, as a sharp low-level temperature inversion develops. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/08/2025
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SPC Nov 8, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon into the evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from central Florida to southeast Virginia. Damaging winds and hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated with an expansive trough east of the Rockies and a ridge over the West. Associated with one of the several shortwave impulses embedded within the broad trough, primary surface cyclone should track from the Upper OH Valley towards the Northeast/southern New England coast. A cold front will tighten as it moves east of the Appalachians and off the Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Monday. ...Central FL to Southeast VA... As has been the case for the past few days, some models have struggled with run-to-run consistency in the degree of convective coverage ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Latest trends have settled back into indicating a drier/more mixed boundary layer ahead of the front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may be confined from central FL to southeast GA where MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg should be common by Sunday afternoon. While low-level shear will be weak, strengthening mid-level west-southwesterlies should support a threat for isolated severe wind/hail. Farther north, decreasing surface-based instability should be compensated by stronger deep-layer shear. This will support a more conditional risk for severe, with mainly marginal intensities. Storm coverage may be quite limited through sunset before isolated convection develops during the evening as increasing mid-level height falls occur just prior to the front shifting offshore. ..Grams.. 11/08/2025
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SPC Nov 8, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm risk appears negligible on Monday and Monday night. ...Discussion... With a surface cyclone near the Northeast/southern New England coast on Monday morning, the attendant full-latitude cold front will likely have moved across the Eastern Seaboard by about 12Z, curtailing thunder potential in the CONUS. A few lightning flashes are possible early within snow bands over Lake Michigan and Erie, supported by very cold mid-level temperatures within the highly amplified eastern trough. ..Grams.. 11/08/2025
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SPC Nov 8, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will be negligible through much of the period in the wake of a continental airmass overspreading the Gulf on D3/Monday. Modified return flow should slowly build across the western Gulf mid to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass approaching the northwest Gulf next weekend. Guidance still lacks run-to-run continuity and timing spread is large, but consensus indications are for an upper-level trough to progress into the Southwest around next weekend. This could yield a return to severe potential in the South-Central States after D8/Saturday.
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