Severe Weather outlook
Storm Prediction Center
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SPC Mar 7, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from northeast Texas into Mississippi. ...ArkLaTex to Mississippi... An upper low over northwest Mexico will begin to migrate east toward the southern Rockies/northern Mexico on Monday. Ahead of this feature, a subtle upper shortwave impulse will move from the southern Plains to the Southeast. This will allow enhanced west/southwesterly flow to overspread a moistening boundary layer across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South and TN Valley. Large-scale ascent will remain subtle. However, forecast guidance suggests sufficiently steep lapse rates will be present to support at least modest destabilization. Favorable deep shear also should support organized updrafts if enough destabilization occurs within the warm advection regime. Given modest forcing mechanisms, storm coverage is uncertain. However, the overall environment should be at least conditionally favorable for a few strong to severe storms through Monday afternoon/evening across portions of the ArkLaTex into MS. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
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SPC Mar 7, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed... An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible. The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening. Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area. ...Day 6/Thu... Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time. Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
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