Tropical Pacific

• NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

  103 <br />AXPZ20 KNHC 150914<br />TWDEP <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1005 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from<br />03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and<br />from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following<br />information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,<br />radar, and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through<br />0830 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 18.0N 107.2W at 15/0900<br />UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central<br />pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with<br />gusts to 65 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 165 <br />nm to the northeast, and along the SW Mexican coast, and up to <br />150 nm across the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at<br />22 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection extend from 15N to<br />22N between 105W and 111W. Dalila will continue to move towards <br />the west-northwest and turn toward the west later tonight or <br />Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast <br />to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Dalila is <br />likely near its peak intensity and will begin to gradually weaken<br />later tonight or Sunday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS <br />FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website<br />- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest <br />T.S. Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at <br />www.hurricanes.gov for more details. <br /><br />...TROPICAL WAVES...<br /><br />A tropical wave extend from Honduras southward into the eastern <br />Tropical Pacific along 88W, moving westward 5 kt. A 1009 mb <br />surface low is along the monsoon trough near 09N88W. Numerous <br />moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between <br />85W and 92W.<br /><br />...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...<br /><br />The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N99W, then resumes <br />southwest of T.S. Dalila near 11N110W to 09N127W. The ITCZ <br />extends from 09N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate<br />convection is from 08N to 14N between 100W and 112W.<br /><br />...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...<br /><br />Please read the Special Features section for information on <br />Tropical Storm Dalila.<br /><br />Broad cyclonic flow associated with Dalila dominates the SW<br />Mexican offshore waters, from Michoacan to the waters of Jalisco<br />where strong winds to 30 kt are ongoing. Seas to 12 ft <br />associated with Dalila continue to affect the coast across much <br />of this area. Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge extends from a <br />1028 mb high centered well NW of the area near 38N135W to just <br />west of Guadalupe Island. This pattern is supporting moderate to<br />locally fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja <br />California where seas are 5 to 7 ft in S swell. Light to gentle <br />winds are ongoing in the northern Gulf of California with seas <br />less than 3 ft. In the southern half of the Gulf winds are <br />moderate from the SW and seas are 3 to 6 ft. Gentle to locally <br />moderate W to NW winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 7<br />to 8 ft in SW swell.<br /><br />For the forecast, Dalila will move to 18.3N 108.7W this <br />afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 18.4N 110.4W Mon <br />morning, weaken to a remnant low near 18.0N 112.0W Mon afternoon,<br />17.8N 113.7W Tue morning, 17.8N 115.8W Tue afternoon, and <br />dissipate Wed morning. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will <br />continue to mix with seas generated from Dalila to impact the <br />waters between Tehuantepec and Baja California Sur through tonight.<br />Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support<br />generally moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across the Baja <br />California offshore waters through Thu night. NW to N swell will<br />build into the Baja waters Mon evening through Thu night. <br /><br />...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, <br />AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...<br /><br />A tropical wave moving across Central America along 88W is <br />described above, and contributing to active weather extending <br />across much of the waters of El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.<br />This activity is producing strong gusty winds and rough seas.<br />Gentle to moderate southerly winds associated with the tropical<br />wave 1009 mb low are over the Costa Rica offshore waters where <br />seas are 5-6 ft. Elsewhere across the remainder Central America<br />offshore waters, winds are light to gentle, and seas are <br />moderate to 6 ft in strong cross-equatorial SW swell. Otherwise,<br />winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands are gentle to<br />moderate from the SSE and seas 5 to 7 ft.<br /><br />For the forecast, large S to SW swell dominating the regional <br />waters will slowly subside through early next week. Tropical <br />Storm Dalila located SW of Manzanillo, Mexico will turn more <br />W-NW and weaken tonight through Tue. Low pressure offshore Costa<br />Rica is expected to drift W to W-NW through the middle of next <br />week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual <br />development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by <br />the middle of next week while moving westward to west- <br />northwestward just offshore of the coasts of El Salvador, <br />Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms <br />are expected to remain active across the regional waters in <br />association with this system. This system is being monitored for <br />potential tropical development, and has a low chance of formation<br />through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 7 days.<br /><br />...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...<br /><br />Please read the Special Features section for information on <br />Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles <br />south of Manzanillo, Mexico.<br /><br />Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 18N and W of<br />120W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE <br />winds north of 10N and west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a <br />mix of N and S swell. Southerly swell is slowly subsiding between<br />90W and 110W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere south of the <br />monsoon/ITCZ, winds and seas are mainly moderate. <br /><br />In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except<br />for increased NW swell north of 26N and east of 130W through <br />Thu. Conditions east of 120W and associated with T.S. Dalila are<br />described in the Special Features section above, and will be <br />dominated by mixed E to SE swell generated by Dalila. Dalila is <br />forecast to spin down to a 20 kt remnant low by Mon evening near <br />17.8N 113.7W. <br /><br />$$<br />Ramos