Fire
|
|
Storm Prediction Center
-
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with minor changes made to the Elevated areas to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Additionally, a couple of dry strikes may accompany isolated thunderstorms along the Front Range in eastern Colorado (and surrounding areas), but overall modest fuel receptiveness suggests that lightning-induced fire ignitions should remain a localized concern, so no isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread the Great Basin, while a related surface cyclone evolves over northern NV. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, along with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH over southern/central NV. Given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Additionally, large-scale ascent accompanying the amplifying midlevel trough will promote a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. While quick storm motions and limited precipitation with some of this activity could yield a risk of lightning-induced ignitions, marginal fuels should generally limit the threat. Over the southern High Plains, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop amid a warm/dry boundary layer near a lee trough during the afternoon. This will favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more