Fire

 

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Storm Prediction Center
SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
  • SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1059 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024
    
    Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
    
    The previous forecast remains on track, with minor changes made to
    the Elevated areas to reflect the latest guidance consensus.
    Additionally, a couple of dry strikes may accompany isolated
    thunderstorms along the Front Range in eastern Colorado (and
    surrounding areas), but overall modest fuel receptiveness suggests
    that lightning-induced fire ignitions should remain a localized
    concern, so no isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added.
    
    ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2024
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/
    
    ...Synopsis...
    Preceding an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast,
    enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread the Great Basin,
    while a related surface cyclone evolves over northern NV. Deep
    boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, along with a
    tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the surface cyclone, will
    yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds and 15-20 percent
    RH over southern/central NV. Given modestly receptive fuels here,
    elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. 
    
    Additionally, large-scale ascent accompanying the amplifying
    midlevel trough will promote a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across
    the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. While quick storm
    motions and limited precipitation with some of this activity could
    yield a risk of lightning-induced ignitions, marginal fuels should
    generally limit the threat. 
    
    Over the southern High Plains, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds
    will develop amid a warm/dry boundary layer near a lee trough during
    the afternoon. This will favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather
    conditions.
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
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