Severe Weather outlook
Storm Prediction Center
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SPC Jan 14, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will approach deep south TX later today. In response to this feature, a north-south surface boundary will be maintained just off the south TX/Mexican Gulf Coast. Little movement is expected with this boundary through the period, but low-level warm advection should persist along the cool side of the boundary where profiles are expected to remain fairly moist, but mid-level buoyancy should prove weak. Forecast soundings exhibit weak instability and parcels should remain too inhibited to warrant any meaningful risk for sustained deep convection capable of generating lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/14/2025
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SPC Jan 14, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas, in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast. Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025
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SPC Jan 14, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will overspread the central portion of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will begin to dig across the Pacific Northwest toward the end of the period while an upper low offshore the southern CA and Baja coast becomes an open wave and shifts east toward the lower CO River Valley. Strong surface high pressure over the Southeast will preclude northward transport of Gulf moisture as low-level trajectories remain oriented offshore. A dry and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025
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SPC Jan 14, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week.
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