Severe Weather outlook

• SPC Jan 18, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

  SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
  

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  0641 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
  
  Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
  
  ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
  
  ...SUMMARY...
  Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible tonight
  across parts of the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys and
  adjacent Gulf Coast vicinity.
  
  ...01Z Update...
  Downstream of building mid/upper ridging across the northeast
  Pacific through Alaska/Yukon vicinity, large-scale mid/upper trough
  amplification is underway along a positively tilted axis roughly
  extending across the Hudson Bay vicinity into the lee of the
  southern Rockies.  This has been preceded by the east-northeastward
  acceleration of initially significant troughing emerging from the
  southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, which is becoming
  increasingly sheared across the southern tier of the United States.
  One still notable embedded short wave perturbation is in the process
  of accelerating east-northeast of the southern Great Plains, and
  forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by 12Z Saturday.
  
  In response to the aforementioned short wave, low-level warm
  advection now overspreading the southeastern Great Plains and lower
  Mississippi Valley will continue to develop eastward tonight.  Even
  with a sizable westerly component to the low-level wind fields, it
  appears that elevated moisture return emanating from a slowly
  modifying boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to
  weak destabilization.  Latest model output continues to suggest that
  this may become sufficient for scattered, generally weak,
  thunderstorm activity as cooling aloft begins to overspread areas
  across and east/southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by around
  05-06Z.
  
  ..Kerr.. 01/18/2025
  
  

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