Severe Weather outlook

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Jan 18, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible tonight
across parts of the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys and
adjacent Gulf Coast vicinity.

...01Z Update...
Downstream of building mid/upper ridging across the northeast
Pacific through Alaska/Yukon vicinity, large-scale mid/upper trough
amplification is underway along a positively tilted axis roughly
extending across the Hudson Bay vicinity into the lee of the
southern Rockies.  This has been preceded by the east-northeastward
acceleration of initially significant troughing emerging from the
southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, which is becoming
increasingly sheared across the southern tier of the United States.
One still notable embedded short wave perturbation is in the process
of accelerating east-northeast of the southern Great Plains, and
forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by 12Z Saturday.

In response to the aforementioned short wave, low-level warm
advection now overspreading the southeastern Great Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley will continue to develop eastward tonight.  Even
with a sizable westerly component to the low-level wind fields, it
appears that elevated moisture return emanating from a slowly
modifying boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to
weak destabilization.  Latest model output continues to suggest that
this may become sufficient for scattered, generally weak,
thunderstorm activity as cooling aloft begins to overspread areas
across and east/southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by around
05-06Z.

..Kerr.. 01/18/2025